The Great Disconnect: Navigating the 2026 Land & Commercial Market

The commercial real estate market is currently defined by a paradox: demand for housing is at an all-time high, yet the "dirt" required to build it is often stuck in a state of suspended animation. In a recent "Land Crew" strategy session, industry experts Jay Royster and Monica shared their boots-on-the-ground insights from two of the nation's hottest markets: the Carolinas and South Florida.

1. The "Bid-Ask" Standstill

The biggest trend defining the market right now is what Jay Royster calls the "Great Disconnect." While the "seven-year runway" of easy multifamily deals (2015–2022) has cooled, land owners are still clinging to 2021 valuations. Meanwhile, developers are facing a new reality of high interest rates, rising labor costs, and tighter lending standards.

"An owner may want $5 million for their land when the math says it’s worth $3.5 million. We’re in the middle of a reset where expectations haven't yet met the new underwriting reality." — Jay Royster

2. Regional Trends: Inbound Migration & Supply Crunches

Despite the "standstill" in transactions, the underlying fundamentals in the Sun Belt remain incredibly strong.

• The Charlotte Boom: North Carolina was recently ranked the #1 state for business. With roughly 150 people moving to Charlotte every day, the demand for "rooftops" isn't slowing down, even if the capital markets have.

  The Florida Migration: Monica notes a similar trend in Florida, where buyers are moving further inland (to areas like Lehigh Acres and Polk County) to find affordability, driving up prices in previously overlooked markets by nearly 100% in just two years.

Market Comparison: Charlotte vs. South Florida

3. Solving the Affordability Crisis

Both experts agree that the "Affordability Issue" is actually a supply issue.

Jay points to the "trickle-down" effect of housing: building Class A apartments allows older inventory to become affordable for the next tier of renters. However, restrictive zoning often prevents the density needed to make these projects "pencil out."

Creative Solutions on the Horizon:

• Modular & Mobile Innovation: Monica is exploring the use of high-end modular homes (via companies like Clayton Homes) to bypass some of the labor shortages and high costs of traditional "stick-built" construction.

• The 2028-2030 Supply Gap: Because so few projects are breaking ground in 2025, experts predict a massive "supply crunch" in three years, making any multifamily project delivered in the late 2020s extremely valuable.

4. Advice for Landowners: Sell, Hold, or Joint Venture?

If you own raw land today, the path forward requires more creativity than it did five years ago.

• When to Sell: If you have a high-value property with no current income, it may be better to sell now and reinvest the capital into interest-bearing assets or a 1031 exchange rather than waiting for a "peak" that may have already passed.

• he Power of Entitlement: Raw land is worth significantly less than "shovel-ready" land. If you don't have the funds to navigate the rezoning process, consider a Joint Venture (JV).

  Joint Ventures: By partnering with a developer, a landowner can roll their land equity into the deal. This allows the owner to participate in the "upside" of the finished development without needing the immediate cash or expertise to build it themselves.

"Everything sounds wonderful until legally it doesn't. The key to a successful JV is crystal-clear documentation, defined timelines, and aligned incentives." — Monica

The Bottom Line

Whether you are in the Carolinas or the Florida Keys, the message is clear: Creativity is the new currency. As we wait for interest rates to stabilize and the "bid-ask" gap to close, the winners will be those who use this time to entitle land, explore new construction methods, and build partnerships for the next cycle.